| LED Digest 1851: The End of SEO? |
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================================================== The LED Digest Moderated Discussion List "Effective Online Advertising, Since 1997" pair Networks: The LED's Web Host Hosting and Domain Reg. from a Trusted Leader pair.com for Hosting | pairNIC.com for Domains ================================================== List Moderator: Published by: Adam Audette LED Digest adam,led-digest.com http://www.led-digest.com ................................................ August 5, 2004 Issue #1851 ................................................ .....IN THIS DIGEST..... ====== NEW ====================== --== The Future of SEO ==-- ~ David Yancey "...in just a few short years, SEO will *not* be a viable option for the vast majority of website owners." ==== CONTINUING ================= --== Inktomi / Yahoo? ==-- ~ Peter Warnock "Inktomi was a great way to show up in the engines fast with a brand new site." --== Click-Thru Discrepancies ==-- ~ Jamie T Voss "There are people out there like me who want to build trust and provide decent services..." --== Part Simple, Part Industrial Stats Programs ==-- ~ Don Baker "The stats issue has been something our company has researched in recent months..." ~ Martha Retallick "Permit me to recommend the hosted version of ClickTracks." ==== BILLBOARD =================== --== Affiliate Links in Sig Files? ==-- ~ Greg Watson ~ Richard Dudley ======= NEW ====================================== From: David Yancey Subject: Suggested NEW thread - Putting SEO in Perspective Putting SEO in Perspective In recent issues of LED, Nick Usborne and others have raised the specter of PPC fraud. Eddie Teo (and others in earlier posts on related threads) have discussed this apparently widespread problem in the search industry. They have made the point that this hidden expense is one aspect of the high cost of PPC, where, thanks to constantly escalating keyword bid prices, the cost per click is at ruinous levels in many instances. Paying for these clicks is bad enough; paying for ghost clicks compounds the problem. Like others, some posters argue that site owners should make better use of SEO techniques to enhance their rank in the "natural search" results of Yahoo, Google, and the coming new MSN search tool. Here, for example, is a new article touting "natural search" by a qualified SEO/SEM expert: http://snipurl.com/87zu [mediapost.com] I of course encourage site owners to do what they can to help ensure a high page position in search engine listings. But you should also be aware that in just a few short years, SEO will *not* be a viable option for the vast majority of website owners. Yes, you read right; I am saying what, to some very smart and highly credible people like the estimable Jill Whalen and her SEO peers, will be taken immediately as heresy. My reasons for this seemingly striking prediction are not hard to follow: First, understand that about 80% or more of the successful click-outs to sites go to the few top-ranked positions in the "natural" listings section of a search results page. Why? Because the "normal" searcher simply refuses to spend time going down a long list of SE results, or scanning multiple pages of them. I see no likely (major) change in this behavior, as much as we'd all hope to the contrary. This means that the current battle between talented SEOs and search engines (who have no wish to make SEO easy to do or transparent) will not just continue; it will escalate in intensity. Very soon, aggressive marketers are apt to be paying their SEO wizards as much or more per click for their expertise as they are paying in PPC charges for leads generated from AdWords or the like. And guess what!? This cut-throat competition for high page visibility won't do even the better-funded, bigger-budget sites much good, ultimately. Do the math: in five years, almost every business will be trying to get its pages ranked in these upper-most positions. But for any highly-used keyword or phrase, only perhaps a few dozen businesses in the entire country can expect to be consistently ranked high enough to gain substantial click-through traffic from SEO-enhanced "natural search". A bummer for the rest of us, but I am afraid it's inevitable. It has nothing to do with SEO skills or SE greed, but arises from the simple scarcity of upper-page positions in the few highly trafficked search sites. The reality is that we are limited to a fixed set of keywords, and a few top slots, so the pressure by hundreds of thousands of sites to be in one of those top slots clearly means that most sites will not be seen. Over the next few years, this vicious competition will gradually work its way across even the not-so-frequently used keywords, as companies look for odd phrases that describe their business or site. The competition at the top of search engine results pages (SERPs) masks an even more basic weakness in the "pure SEO" strategy. This weakness comes from the gradual *lessening* of importance of conventional search results in the total process of finding relevant online pages. Consider that, today, a great many users do *not* use SE tools, because the results are seen to be not relevant, stale or dated, too "commercial", or just plain overwhelming. For a very large proportion of users, the process of dreaming up a clever search expression is just too mystical. The irony is that while Google and the well-funded wizards of MSN and a hundred smaller search tech firms are busy trying to find new ways to include even more "results" and page choices, users are giving up from the already intimidating "millions" of supposed matches to their queries. It is therefore not too surprising to predict that by, say, 2008, "natural search" listings in the 3-7 main global "search engines" will account for perhaps only 10% of all the *first-time visitor* click-throughs to web sites. How can this be? Because: - Probably 20-25% of first time visitors will be using alternative online search tools and directories, which will be more sharply related to their particular queries, interests, and product needs, such as travel search tools or automotive info sites that double as search engines. - Another 15-25% of first time site visitors will be turning to tools that are better focused on their specific geographic area, such as Internet Yellow Pages and the various city info guides. - At least 40% of first time visitors will be coming directly from links in other sites. Many of these will be affiliate-type links, and others from various forms of paid advertisements; but, do not discount the very large number of new visitors that will be clicking on (unpaid) in-context links, such as references in community forums, online articles, and product reviews. This means that the SEs will be producing perhaps less than 20% of new visitors. And we need to remember that easily half of these will be clicking on "sponsored" listings -- the ones not susceptible to SEO manipulation or influence. The above explains why I suggest that the potential maximum pay-off from SEO will thus be perhaps 10% of your new traffic -- and that only for the sites who can compete for superior page position. Hence my prediction that for smaller businesses and those on the local level, "natural search" and SEO will become relatively useless as a means of acquiring substantial new prospects. Truth be told, it already is a bust for perhaps a million commercial sites who are bringing up the rear in online business. The conclusions? By all means, make a realistic investment in SEO right now, and work the natural search potential as well as you are able. But with the cost of acquiring new prospects likely to escalate, and the limited long-term effectiveness of techniques such as SEO, investigate economical alternatives such as paid-inclusion. And above all, start programs *now* (if you have not already done so) to make your site easy for new prospects to find in non-search venues. David Yancey http://www.vivante.com ===== CONTINUING ================================= From: Peter Warnock Subject: Inktomi > I am wondering if anyone else has received the renewal from > Inktomi / Yahoo and what the verdict is... I am reluctant to pay > an annual 'review' fee based on the URLs PLUS a click through > fee... - Charles Bennett, LED 1850 Inktomi was a great way to show up in the engines fast with a brand new site. Eventually the engines organically pick you up and there's no need to continue the subscription. Peter Warnock webstruction.com ------- new post - new topic --------- From: Jamie T Voss Subject: Click disparities > ... I have fair numbers of visitors to my sites and considerably > high conversion rates, and I am a total convert and a non-believer > in PPC. If something aint working for you, I suggest you drop > them, no point wasting money for something which isnt working... - Eddie Teo, LED 1849 In LED 1787 I wrote about building trust as a small PPC Engine [ http://snipurl.com/8802 ]. There has been a lot of discussion related to Pay-Per-Click, SEO and paid inclusion search engine and directory advertising since then. My first experience in business on the web was writing and selling my own custom software development tools. I got into the business of creating my own small PPC engine and website directory indirectly. I found I was spending so much time finding ways to advertise my own software that I might as well focus on that and see if I can provide the same service for others. >From the beginning I wanted to provide a service that was fair and trustworthy. I think that one benefit of having your website listed in a directory or PPC search engine is that you increase your chances of your link coming up in a search engine like Google. By building a directory first and a PPC engine second I keep your links exposed to search engines all the time whether you've bid keywords or have any funds in your account or not. I think this provides a better service than any other PPC search engine out there. I'm also working hard to provide additional features such as being able to display images, categories, sub-categories and business address and contact information with your links. Finally, I provide access to all the tools up-front and one free listing so you can try everything out and see all aspects of the service before you commit any funds. I hope you'll try it out. There are people out there like me who want to build trust and provide decent services even in an industry that is overwhelmed with fraud like website advertising. Thanks, Jamie T Voss http://login.vsoftdev.net http://www.portxml.com ------- new post - new topic --------- From: Don Baker Subject: Stats > Can you guys point me in the direction of your favourite, > easy to understand, graphical... webstats package - Dirk van der Werff, LED 1848 The stats issue has been something our company has researched in recent months, as our clients need either / both 1) detailed web traffic stats, 2) pay-per-click (PPC) conversion stats. After checking out a number of alternatives, we've just signed up as a partner for IndexTools ( www.indextools.com ), which combines web stats (like WebTrends) with an option to track all conversions from PPC ads (using a snippet of code). You can take a look at a demo site by going to our partner login page at http://www.conversionconnect.com and typing in "demo" for both username and password. You'll see all the detailed stats available when you use the IndexTools services. You can also sign up for a free 15-day trial of the IndexTools service by clicking the link on the http://www.conversionconnect.com login page -- no obligation, etc. (If you decide to continue as a paying customer, you can do it through ConversionConnect -- costs are the same as through IndexTools, but my company gets a portion of the fee.) Don Baker NSI Partners http://www.nsipartners.com ------- new post - same topic -------- From: Martha Retallick Subject: Stats Permit me to recommend the hosted version of ClickTracks. Details at: http://www.clicktracks.com/hosted/ My search engine guy, William Johnson, turned me on to this product. It works by tracking a snippet of Javascript that you place on each page. In addition to setting up the ClickTracks account for me, William also provided me with a one-hour tutorial on ClickTracks data analysis. We focused on my first month of data, and, oh, was it an educational experience! In addition to ClickTracks, I highly recommend William's SEO work. Contact him via: http://www.netprofitnow.com Hope this helps! Martha Retallick "The Passionate Postcarder" http://www.postcardmarketingsecrets.com ==== BILLBOARD ==================================== From: Greg Watson Subject: ID links > What do LEDers think about affiliate links [in sig files]? - Steve Pronger, LED 1850 Absolutely not, never, please, please, please NEVER. I do not want to take the time to "question" or "evaluate" the motivation of someone's post. I am perfectly willing to check out a website recommended by A Disinterested Party, but I do not have the time to sort through the hype of an affiliate. While I trust that you would weed out the bulk of that type of post, I don't want to waste my time always having to question the source and motivations of the poster. Greg Watson ------- new post - same topic ------- From: Richard Dudley Subject: ID links 2% of sales via that affiliate link go to support LEDD? This is an ad-sponsored medium (thank you pair networks!). It kind of puts retail operators in an odd position -- I'm dropping in my URL more to say "here's where you can find me if you need to", and to let you know I'm not some anonymous schlep. Granted, I have my choice of several websites, I just use the one or two closest to me. I'm not directly trying to sell anything, but if you buy something, I won't complain. Rich Dudley www.bloomeryweddings.com ------------------------------------------------------- The LED Digest is sponsored by pair Networks: pair.com for Hosting | pairNIC.com for Domains Copyright 1995-2004 Adam Audette. All Rights Reserved. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "Try not to become a man of success, but rather try to become a man of value." - Albert Einstein |
